Forecasting with a Global Expert

When Karessa Hill, ’25, saw that an intelligence course was being taught by Melissa Graves, Ph.D., department head and associate professor of intelligence and security studies, she didn’t hesitate to sign up—she knew she wanted to be in that classroom. “I trust that Dr. Graves has me in good hands,” said Hill. “That’s what everybody said. We know who Dr. Graves is, and we want to be in her class.”

Far from a typical lecture class, Graves’ course immerses students in real-time analysis and gives them direct access to one of the field’s leading authorities. Hill, alongside four other students, spent the semester learning about George Friedman’s intelligence forecasting model. Friedman, an expert in international affairs, foreign policy and intelligence, is the New York Times best-selling author of several books, including The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. While reading the book and learning about Friedman’s intelligence-forecasting model for the foreseeable geopolitical future, students interacted with Friedman over a series of video calls. “We were given the opportunity to ask him questions,” said Hill. “He would break down the model and tell us what it meant.”

Hill and her classmates engaged in realtime dialogue with Friedman, discussing the application of intelligence forecasting to current events. “The model is built on the imperatives and constraints of a country,” said Hill. “Their imperatives are what they want to do, and their constraints are what’s holding them back.” Based on these factors, Friedman’s model can determine what a country is most likely to do given its current circumstances. Students also learned to analyze different political trends to forecast what might happen in the future. The video calls with Friedman took place in the training SCIF, or sensitive compartmented information facility, a training room in Capers Hall where cadets can learn how to handle classified material.

Hill, an intelligence and security studies major, found her passion for the subject during an internship in Washington, D.C., with Congresswoman Nancy Mace, ’99, the first female graduate from The Citadel’s Corps of Cadets. Hill was thrilled when she realized she once again had the opportunity to work directly with someone in the professional sphere, this time with a leading expert in intelligence rather than politics. “It was interesting to work with Dr. Friedman, just seeing how someone with insight into global intelligence operates,” said Hill. “That was the first time I’ve seen that kind of thinking up close and in person.”